International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Science No. 3

The PAGES research community works toward improving our understanding of the Earth's changing environment. By placing current and future global changes in a long term perspective, they can be assessed relative to natural variability. Since the industrial revolution, the Earth System has become increasingly affected by human activities. Natural and human processes are woven into a complex tapestry of forcings, responses, feedbacks and consequences. Deciphering this complexity is essential as we plan for the future. Paleoenvironmental research is the only way to investigate Earth System processes that operate on timescales longer than the period of instrumental records

Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Human influences have likely already impacted the large-scale water cycle but natural variability and observational uncertainty are substantial. It is essential to maintain and improve observational capabilities to better characterize changes. Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes

Phylogenetic conservation of soil bacterial responses to simulated global changes.

Soil bacterial communities are altered by anthropogenic drivers such as climate change-related warming and fertilization. However, we lack a predictive understanding of how bacterial communities respond to such global changes. Here, we tested whether phylogenetic information might be more predictive of the response of bacterial taxa to some forms of global change than others. We analysed the composition of soil bacterial communities from perturbation experiments that simulated warming, drought, elevated CO2 concentration and phosphorus (P) addition. Bacterial responses were phylogenetically conserved to all perturbations. The phylogenetic depth of these responses varied minimally among the types of perturbations and was similar when merging data across locations, implying that the context of particular locations did not affect the phylogenetic pattern of response. We further identified taxonomic groups that responded consistently to each type of perturbation. These patterns revealed that, at the level of family and above, most groups responded consistently to only one or two types of perturbations, suggesting that traits with different patterns of phylogenetic conservation underlie the responses to different perturbations. We conclude that a phylogenetic approach may be useful in predicting how soil bacterial communities respond to a variety of global changes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Conceptual challenges in microbial community ecology'

Investigating changes in global tropical cyclone storm frequency and intensity

Understanding fluctuations in tropical cyclone activity along United States shores and abroad becomes increasingly important as coastal managers and planners seek to save lives, mitigate damage, and plan for resilience in the face of changing storminess and sea-level rise. Tropical cyclone activity has long been of concern to coastal areas as they bring strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas. Given projections of a warming climate, current estimates suggest that not only will tropical cyclones increase in frequency, but also in intensity (maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressures). An understanding of what has happened historically is an important step in identifying potential future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. The ability to detect such changes depends on a consistent and reliable global tropical cyclone dataset. Until recently no central repository for historical tropical cyclone data existed. To fill this need, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset was developed to collect all known global historical tropical cyclone data into a single source for dissemination. With this dataset, a global examination of changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity can be performed. Caveats apply to any historical tropical cyclone analysis however, as the data contributed to the IBTrACS archive from various tropical cyclone warning centers is still replete with biases that may stem from operational changes, inhomogeneous monitoring programs, and time discontinuities. A detailed discussion of the difficulties in detecting trends using tropical cyclone data can be found in Landsea et al. 2006. The following sections use the IBTrACS dataset to show the global spatial variability of tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Analyses will show where the strongest storms typically occur, the regions with the highest number of tropical cyclones per decade, and the locations of highest average maximum wind speeds. (PDF contains 3 pages

Global environmental changes: setting priorities for Latin American coastal habitats.

The definitive version is available at www.blackwell-synergy.comThe Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) reports that Global Environmental Changes (GEC) are occurring quicker than at any other time over the last 25 million years and impacting upon marine environments (Bellard et al., 2012). There is overwhelming evidence showing that GEC are affecting both the quality and quantity of the goods and services provided by a wide range of marine ecosystems. In order to discuss regional preparedness for global environmental changes, a workshop was held in Ilhabela, Brazil (22- 26 April 2012) entitled "Evaluating the Sensitivity of Central and South American Benthic Communities to Global Environmental Changes" that drew together scientists from ten Latin American and three European countries. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

A Carbon-Cycle Based Stochastic Cellular Automata Climate Model

In this article a stochastic cellular automata model is examined, which has been developed to study a "small" world, where local changes may noticeably alter global characteristics. This is applied to a climate model, where global temperature is determined by an interplay between atmospheric carbon dioxide and carbon stored by plant life. The latter can be relased by forest fires, giving rise to significant changes of global conditions within short time.Comment: 17 pages, 8 figure

Pathways of change : shifting connectivities in the world city network, 2000-08

This is an empirical paper that measures and interprets changes in intercity relations at the global scale in the period 2000-08. It draws on the network model devised by the Globalization and World Cities (GaWC) research group to measure global connectivities for 132 cities across the world in 2000 and 2008. The measurements for both years are adjusted so that a coherent set of services/cities is used. A range of statistical techniques is used to explore these changes at the city level and the regional scale. The most notable changes are: the general rise of connectivity in the world city network; the loss of global connectivity of US and sub-Saharan African cities (Los Angeles, San Francisco and Miami in particular); and, the gain in global connectivity of south Asian, Chinese and eastern European cities (Shanghai, Beijing and Moscow in particular)

Investigating Changes in Chlorophyll a and Other Water Chemistry Variables in Response to Global Environmental Change

Changes in water quality are influenced by climate change and other anthropogenic stressors. We 1) assessed changes in water quality in lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes region, and 2) compiled water quality data for lakes across the world to assess global patterns in chlorophyll a. We found that at the regional scale water quality (specifically chlorophyll a, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and dissolved organic carbon) were influenced by temperature, precipitation, morphology, and the presence of dreissenids. We also compiled chlorophyll a and water chemistry data together with morphometric characteristics for 8557 lakes worldwide. This global dataset will allow researchers to associate global water quality patterns to different pressures such as changes climate or land use